9.16 ASIC earnings until now

8th July 2013

Last post in series

0. Introduction
I mentioned in the last post that I didn't have the time to keep up with estimated shipping dates and amount for device manufacturers. It also turns out that even using the most pessimistic estimates I could find, I still vastly overestimated the number of hashes being added - for example we are now at the network hashrate I expected at the start of June. So although I do find I have a bit more time now I don't feel compelled to continue with the network forecasts.

However I thought it might be interesting to periodically record the "story so far" in terms of hashrate, difficulty, earnings per day and cumulative earnings, and this post is the result. It is essentially the same as the posts I've done previously, without the "forecasting" aspect.

If you need more details or explanations, see this post and this one.

1. Results
The earnings estimates are many times better than you would expect if you had taken seriously the manufacturer shipping times/amounts  - even if you had doubled the estimated shipping times, you still would have underestimated earnings.

Even so, the "Days required to earn ROI" chart shows that none of the ASICMiner "Block Eruptor" devices will have yet earned an ROI. These devices were first made available in last April at ~ 7.5 BTC/Ghps. Since then some have been obtained more cheaply, but none of these have earned a BTC ROI either.

Assuming Avalons were purchased at ~ 1 BTC per Ghps, any that were deployed up to or earlier than 30 days ago will have made a complete return on the BTC investment.

I can't be certain about the probability of BFL devices making an ROI since the BTC cost will have depended on date of purchase. However estimating the BTC / Ghps cost at between 0.2 and 2 Ghps, ROI would have been obtained for any that were deployed ten days ago or earlier at 0.2 BTC / Ghps, and at a device cost of 2 BTC / Ghps an ROI would have been made for devices deployed two months ago or earlier.

Another point of interest - if you scroll down to chart 1, the "Estimated network variables" chart, and look at the bottom facet, you notice that since the start of February the estimated blocks per day has never been below 150 blocks per day. Anytime someone mentions that the network adjusts so that 144 blocks per day are produced, you should point this out to them.

I'll post another "story so far" update in a month or so - to be honest, I think the network hashrate will continue to climb much more slowly than I'd previously estimated.

1. Charts

Chart 1: The expected hashrate, difficulty and blocks per day from the 1st February (when the first privately owned ASIC was received) until 8th July.

Chart 2: Daily BTC earnings, expected total BTC earnings per Ghps until 8th July, and the weekly average of the expected total.

Chart 3: Days required (tile colour and contour, amount noted at contour) for a device to earn return on investment in BTC / Ghps (y axis), depending on the deployment date (x axis).

Chart 4: The cumulative earnings in btc per Ghps until 8th July 2013, minus the device cost in BTC per Ghps (net profit, tile colour / contour and y axis, respectively), depending on the deployment date (x axis).

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