Neighbourhood Pool Watch: Weekly network forecast 8th July 2013

8th July, 2013

Last post

Important:
These posts are a test of the methods used to create the forecasts, and definitely do not forecast non-MTGOX US$ / BTC price related changes - for example the current massive decrease in the cost of a hash. Please do not use the forecasts here for financial forecasts - these posts might be useful in that respect.

0.Introduction

The inaccuracy of the Canary model this week suggests the network hashrate is currently affected by variables other than the MTGOX US$ BTC price relationship. My guess is that as Avalon's ASICs continue to be delivered, the network hashrate increases out of sync with the current MTGOX US$ BTC price. This has led to the Canary model inaccuracy, and the inaccuracies of the hashrate and difficulty models generally.

The network hashrate is within the 95% confidence interval for error for all models other than the Canary model and the four week forecast model. The method 1 difficulty estimates have increased a little this week, and the method two estimates remain as for last week.

If the hashrate surge slows down a little all but the method 2 estimates should recover some degree of accuracy.

1. Models and datasets:

The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.

Forecast and canary model analysis

All datasets

All estimates

Canary model: An estimate of the current hashrate estimate based only on current price and previous network hashrates. Used to detect changes to the network caused by agents other than the direct action the MTGOX US$ / BTC price as determined by the model.

Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: These are the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the network hashrate, based on the modelled relationship between the MTGOX US$ / BTC and the network hashrate.

Difficulty modelling: Method one calculates a difficulty estimation using the network hashrate estimation and is recalculated each week. Method 2 calculates difficulty estimation based only on previous difficulties and the MTGOX price, and is only recalculated after each difficulty retarget.

2. Results

3. Charts

Chart 1:

A graphical history of the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 2:

A graphical history of the Canary model estimates of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 3:

A graphical history of the last twenty six weeks of retarget date and difficulty estimates, actual retarget dates and actual difficulties. It should be noted that each retarget will often be forecast by two consecutive weekly forecasts, hence the multiple points per retarget on the new chart.

Chart 4:

A graphical history of the one, two, and three retarget forecasts of the Difficulty, modelled directly as a function of previous Difficulties and MTGOX US$ / BTC prices.