10th July 2013
0. Introduction
Last week I wrote:
It's far too early to say, but it does seem that the future network will contain far fewer miners, each with a larger average proportion of the network. If this continues we may have the situation Vladimir predicted a couple of years ago - that most of the network will be owned by private companies. I hope this doesn't happen, but people who understand economics better than I have suggested it's a plausible scenario.
There was a significant increase in ASICMiner's hashrate this week. Because of this, and also because I only have access to user hashrates for ~ 59% of the network, this week's estimate may be incorrect. I'm not sure I believe 7000 miners just left the network, for example.I'm now much more willing to entertain the idea of a large fraction of miners leaving. I think many GPU users have either been converting to Litecoin or leaving mining altogether. Of all the pools I monitor only HHTT has an increased number of miners this week, and even then it was only about 5 new miners. Eligius has managed to retain its miners. All the other pools have seen significant drops in miner count, even as their hashrate and efficiency increase.
It's far too early to say, but it does seem that the future network will contain far fewer miners, each with a larger average proportion of the network. If this continues we may have the situation Vladimir predicted a couple of years ago - that most of the network will be owned by private companies. I hope this doesn't happen, but people who understand economics better than I have suggested it's a plausible scenario.
The assumptions I've used to create this data are outlined here.
The raw user hashrate data is here. It's an Rdata file, and consists of a dataframe named "alluserHR.df " with 245637 rows and three columns - Date, Pool (this includes ASICMiner), and UserHR (the hashrate of pool account holders in Ghps). Let me know if you do something interesting with the data.
The raw user hashrate data is here. It's an Rdata file, and consists of a dataframe named "alluserHR.df " with 245637 rows and three columns - Date, Pool (this includes ASICMiner), and UserHR (the hashrate of pool account holders in Ghps). Let me know if you do something interesting with the data.
1. Network: Per Ghps band user count, summed hashrate, and summed electricity.
2. Pools: Per Ghps band user count, summed hashrate, and summed electricity.
Most pools are experiencing declines in the numbers of users in the < 5 Ghps band.
3. Efficiency, joules per Gh (eq. watts per Ghps)
This chart is not meant to be a value judgement on any pool; rather you can think of the efficiency as a guide to the proportion of different types of hashing tools. The higher the J/Gh, the less efficient the hashing entity is (pool, network or solominer), and the higher the proportion of CPUs and GPUs to ASICs.
Since there can be significant variance per week I'm using cubic splines, so curves may vary from week to week.
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