Weekly network forecast 28th January 2013

0.Introduction

The network hashrate for this week is back within the 95% confidence interval for error except for the canary model. I'm still wondering if the block reward halving has broken the model - the large errors began just after, and have continued since then (with the exception of one week).

1. Models and datasets:

The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.

Forecast and canary model analysis

All datasets

All estimates

Difficulty data and estimates

2. Results

• Canary model (current hashrate estimate based only on current price and previous network hashrates): The network hashrate is still below this model's 95% confidence interval lower bound. 
• Model.f1 (one week forecast): The network hashrate is also below Model.f1's 95% confidence interval lower.
• Models f2, f3 and f4 errors are still high, but still within the estimated 95% confidence interval for the error are not yet useful for long range forecasts.

3. Tables and charts

Table 1:

One, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate, as well as the canary model estimate.

Table 2:

A comparison of the four forecasts and the canary model estimate with the actual network forecast.

Table 3:

One, two and three retarget forecasts for the mining Difficulty at those retargets.

Table 4:

A table of previous retarget date and difficulty estimates, and the actual retarget dates and difficulties as a comparison.

Chart 1: 

A graphical history of the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 2: 

A graphical history of the Canary model estimates of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 3: 

A graphical history of the last twenty six weeks of retarget date and difficulty estimates, actual retarget dates and actual difficulties. It should be noted that each retarget will often be forecast by two consecutive weekly forecasts, hence the multiple points per retarget on the new chart. 

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