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Monday, 28 January 2013

r/Bitcoin pageviews and the MTGOX price



0. Introduction
JohnGalt3 requested I compare the r/Bitcoin statistics (from yesterday's post) to the MTGOX US$ / BTC price. Again, this is a very quick post but with a little analysis added.

1. The correlations
I  calculated the Pearson's correlation coefficient for the following:

Daily uniques: 0.53
Daily pageviews: 0.64
Daily subscrptions: -0.13
Daily cumulative subscriptions: 0.79
Monthly uniques: 0.82
Monthly pageviews: 0.85


It's not surprising that the monthly data has a better correlation that the daily - there's less noise and a longer time period. Since there's no monthly subscription data, I'm a bit uncertain about the cumulative daily subscriptions and price correlation - I think it's just too short a time period, and the cumulative daily subscriptions are almost linear. Monthly subscription data would be better.

In the final chart I've created a linear model for pageviews and uniques as a function of price:

Uniques =  30298.1 + 2617.8 * price, intercept p value = 0.0001, slope p value = 0.0010
Pageviews =  68500 + 26213 * price, intercept p value = 0.1696, slope p value = 0.0005

2. Conclusion
There does seem to be a linear relationship between r/bitcoin's monthly uniques and pageviews and the MTGOX US$ / BTC price.

3. The charts












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