Weekly network forecast 14th January 2013

0.Introduction

The Canary model error for this week turns out to be more than the 95% confidence interval for error, and well outside the 95% confidence interval for the network hashrate estimate. This  possibly implies the effect of an external influence, or more likely due to the 3.2% increase in price coupled with an unexpected 7.7% decrease in the weekly average network hashrate.

• If there is some sort of external influence which has caused some proportion of miners to switch off suddenly, then the model recovery will likely be slow, as it was after the block reward halving.
• If the drop in hashrate with an increase in price is a random event, models should recover to within the expected range next week.
• If the last two weeks were anomalous and the block reward halving is having a continued effect on the network, then model error will continue to be outside the 95% confidence interval for error an unknown period of time. 

1. Models and datasets:

The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.

Forecast and canary model analysis

All datasets

All estimates

Difficulty data and estimates

2. Results

• Canary model (current hashrate estimate based only on current price and previous network hashrates): The network hashrate is back below this model's 95% confidence interval lower bound. As discussed above, this may indicate an external factor indicating the network hashrate. Next week's estimate errors should help indicate which of the possibilities listed above are more likely. 
• Model.f1 (one week forecast): The network hashrate is also below Model.f1's 95% confidence interval lower bound the network hashrate being 15% less than the model forecast.
• Models f2, f3 and f4 errors are still high, but still within the estimated 95% confidence interval for the error are not yet useful for long range forecasts.
• The forecasts for the most recent difficulty retarget were 102.2% and 100.4% of the actual retarget difficulty for the one retarget forecast, 111.5% and 106.9% of the actual retarget difficulty for the two retarget forecast, and 119.6% and 116.4% of the actual retarget difficulty for the three retarget forecast.

3. Tables and charts

Table 1:

One, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate, as well as the canary model estimate.

Table 2:

A comparison of the four forecasts and the canary model estimate with the actual network forecast.

Table 3:

One, two and three retarget forecasts for the mining Difficulty at those retargets.

Table 4:

A table of previous retarget date and difficulty estimates, and the actual retarget dates and difficulties as a comparison.

Chart 1: 

A graphical history of the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 2: 

A graphical history of the Canary model estimates of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 3: 

A graphical history of the last twenty six weeks of retarget date and difficulty estimates, actual retarget dates and actual difficulties. It should be noted that each retarget will often be forecast by two consecutive weekly forecasts, hence the multiple points per retarget on the new chart. 

 

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