9.7 ASIC choices: What will the first batch of Avalon ASICs earn?

0. Introduction
As a follow on to the last post, I've decided to be a little less "Jeff-centric" this time and chart the earnings that can be expected by owners of any Avalon unit that ships before Chinese New Year (10th February). Please keep in mind that these results are simply estimates based on multiple assumptions. The estimates may be in the right ball park, but if any assumptions are egregiously incorrect, the accuracy will be significantly affected.

The method I use to calculate the data is outlined in post "9.3: More on ASIC choices". If you want to be able to analyse similar problems, you may wish to read it.

I've used the same unit arrival times model as in the last post, and the same assumptions, repeated here:

• 12 units will be shipped each day from 21st January until 10th February (Chinese New Year).
• Units will arrive distributed in a log-normal fashion, with mean = log(216) hours after the first unit ships, and log standard deviation of 0.25. Using this model, Jeff should receive his unit about six days after 21st January (when shipping started). Hopefully his local parcel deliverers work on weekends.
• The expected delivery date for the "BFL Single SC" is week of the 10th of February. I'm assuming the first "BFL Single SC" will arrive on the 17th of February, which means about 25 days mining from the first Avalon unit is received until the first BFL unit is received.
• The exchange rate is US$17 per btc, and Jeff's electricity costs are US$0.15/kWh
• New owners are able to have their new Avalon ASIC hasher up and running immediately at 66Ghps and 400W, and there is no downtime.

1. Maximum earnings for an arbitrary arrival time.

The simplest method of determining expected earnings for new owners is based on the date the owner receives the Avalon unit and starts it hashing. This is similar to finding what Jeff might earn if his delivery was delayed by an arbitrary amount, and I've charted the maximum expected btc and US$ earnings below. 

Keep in mind this will be necessarily inaccurate - not all owners will have an electricity costs of US$0.15/kWh, and the MTGOX BTC US$ exchange rate is up and down like a brides nightie. The estimated earnings reduce rather quickly. You'd best hope your ASIC was in the first shipping day! Which brings us to .... 

2. Maximum earnings for units shipped on an arbitrary day

Since the time for delivery to various parts of the world will vary (which is what I attempted to model in the log-normal unit arrival time distribution), the amount that can be earned by units shipped on an arbitrary day will also vary significantly. If my model is accurate, even if your unit was one of the first twelve shipped you may not receive it until up to a week after the first unit was received. 

This mean that for units shipped on the same day a range of maximum earnings can be determined. The chart below shows those earnings ranges (in BTC and US$), and the colour of the range indicates how many units could be expected to obtain a particular maximum earning. For example, on the first shipping day about 2.2 units would earn a maximum of 171 btc, one unit would be expected to about 100 btc and one would earn 266 btc. These are based on probability density rather than mass, so they're just meant to be a guide. If it bothers you, convert the numbers to a percentage (of 12)  instead. 

I found this chart quite interesting. It shows how much variability there will be for earnings even for units shipped on the same day.

Unless some more interesting questions arise, I'll wait until the first reviews appear before posting more on the subject, and remove some of the assumptions in this post and also the ROI posts. Good luck to everyone expecting an Avalon ASIC!

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