9.6 ASIC choices: WWJE update.

0. Introduction
Respected forum member Mr. Teal pointed out some of the more egregious errors  in the assumptions I made last post when calculating what Jeff Garzik (bitcoin developer and first recipient of the first ASIC hashing device) might earn before the BFL ASIC hashers are received.

So I've modelled the unit arrival times and network hashrate differently, using the following new assumptions:

• 12 units will be shipped each day.
• Units will arrive distributed in a log-normal fashion, with mean = log(216) hours after the first unit ships, and log standard deviation of 0.25. Using this model, Jeff should receive his unit about six days after 21st January (when shipping started). Hopefully his local parcel deliverers work on weekends.
• Units from the current production run will stop being shipped on 10th February (Chinese New Year), and will not resume for the week. 
• The expected delivery date for the "BFL Single SC" is week of the 10th of February. I'm assuming the first "BFL Single SC" will arrive on the 17th of February, which means about 25 days mining from the first Avalon unit is received until the first BFL unit is received.
• The exchange rate is US$17 per btc, and Jeff's electricity costs are US$0.15/kWh
• Jeff is able to have his new Avalon ASIC hasher up and running immediately at 66Ghps and 400W, and leaves it running for the entire twenty five days. There is no downtime.

Using the new assumptions, the three new charts below show the arrival time density, summed arrival time for added hashrate from the units, and the cumulative increase in network hashrate.

The facetted chart below that is the same as for last post, showing the estimated network parameters and what I estimate Jeff Garzik will earn (in btc and US$) from his Avalon device in the first approximately twenty five days of ownership. I now estimate he'll earn about 266 btc and earn (after paying for electricity) about US$4220. A nice reward for all his hard work.

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