0.Introduction
It could be suggested that the reward halving continues to produce a significant effect outside of the direct USDBTC comparison, and certainly that's what I intuit. I suspect only a doubling of the MTGOX US$BTC price or a halving of the network hashrate will bring the model on track, but time will tell.
1. Models and datasets:
The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.
2. Results
Model.f1, the one week forecast, recovered to within the 95% confidence interval range for last weeks's forecast of this week. I think this shows the importance of including the network hashrate lag variables. As somewhat expected the Canary model is still modelling a hashrate much higher than the current network hashrate, which is outside the 95% confidence interval for that model for the third week in a row.
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