Apologies for the lateness of this post. I had completely forgotten to hit "publish" when I completed it. I checked to make sure there had been no specification updates, so it's all as up-to-date as possible.
All the instructional information remains in the first and third ASIC choices posts.
I will post updates every week or two as updated specifications are published. Any manufacturer who would like to keep me in the loop can pm me at the bitcointalk.org forums.
Please remember that these charts are based on several assumptions; one or more of which are likely to be incorrect. The assumptions are:
1. Device specifications are correct
2. Addition of ASIC hashrate has reduced so that the average increase in D is 5% per difficulty period.
3. D at which you start mining with the new device is only assessed at 30, 60 and 90 million.
4. The local electricity cost is only assessed at US$0.1/kWh, US$0.2/kWh and US$0.3/kWh.
1. Devices
The bASIC miner has been upgraded to 72Ghps, the power changed to 120 W, and I've included an additional $40 for a suitable PSU (thanks to bitcointalk.org forum member bcpokey for the US based prices).
Everything else remains the same.
Everything else remains the same.
2. The charts
Chart 1: Exchange rate required for a given ROI.
In order to read this group of charts, find the intersection of a percentage ROI and number of difficulty periods (eg. % ROI after one year is at ~ 26 difficulty periods). The colour of the tile is an indicator of the exchange rate required to meet this %ROI after the given number of difficulty periods. The faint white line along the middle of each plot indicates the break even point. Click on a chart for enlargement.
Chart 3: Profitable mining duration as a function of exchange rate and time since purchase.
This is a comparison between the four devices listed (an additional 100 W added for the attached computer, except for the standalone Avalon). The chart facets are groups according to assumed D when mining on the device started and the electricity cost. Pick a column closest to your local electricity cost, a row closest you the D at which you think you'll be mining, then if you agree that the average percentage increase in D per difficulty period is 5% you can determine for how long the devices are likely to be profitable.
In order to read this group of charts, find the intersection of a percentage ROI and number of difficulty periods (eg. % ROI after one year is at ~ 26 difficulty periods). The colour of the tile is an indicator of the exchange rate required to meet this %ROI after the given number of difficulty periods. The faint white line along the middle of each plot indicates the break even point. Click on a chart for enlargement.
Chart 2: Profitable mining limits as a function of exchange rate and mining Difficulty.
This shows the profitable mining limit for four ASIC devices for which I was able to obtain hashrate and power consumption estimates. It can be used to find the maximum difficulty at which an ASIC device can profitably mine. For example, at an electricity cost of USD$0.20 per kWh and an exchange rate of USD$20 / btc, the BFL Single SC plus a 100 W computer will be still profitable at a difficulty of 750 million, but not at a difficulty of 1 billion.
Chart 3: Profitable mining duration as a function of exchange rate and time since purchase.
This is a comparison between the four devices listed (an additional 100 W added for the attached computer, except for the standalone Avalon). The chart facets are groups according to assumed D when mining on the device started and the electricity cost. Pick a column closest to your local electricity cost, a row closest you the D at which you think you'll be mining, then if you agree that the average percentage increase in D per difficulty period is 5% you can determine for how long the devices are likely to be profitable.
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As long as you aren't using the machine for power, a ~20W laptop will work just as fine as a host computer. I believe the BFLs are powered externally, and thus would qualify.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the feedback :)
DeleteYou're probably right, but I wan't to make any of these sort of changes right now for a couple of reasons:
1. I'd really like actual specs and first hand reports from owners about power consumption, especially for the Avalon.
2. I don't know how many people will buy a low powered laptop in order to run an ASIC device.
After ASICs ship and I start getting feedback from readers, I'll start making this sort of estimate change.
Really cool estimates, man!
DeleteIt'll be great to see some updates once customers really receive their Avalons. Also, don't forget Android mining ;)