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Sunday, 17 November 2013

November 17th 2013 weekly pool and network statistics




Other weekly pool and network statistics posts


Welcome, miners.

Changelog:
  • Added BTCDig - thanks for the API, dbitcoin.
Usual pools missing from results:
  • Deepbit - no blocks solved this week.
  • Ozcoin -no user hashrate data this week. Cloudflare prevents my attempts to screen scrape the relevant tables, so I won't be able to include Ozcoin in Figure 8 until that changes. 
Errors:
  • Nil
Pools with coinbase signature:
Recent coinbase messages:

Pool hopping:
  • Nil.




1. EclipseMC has crazy good luck
An average of 0.49 shares per round / mining difficulty for 41 solved blocks has a CDF of 0.000028. This means that luck as good as or better than that should occur only once every 35, 661 repeats of 41 blocks solved. This is very unlikely - there has only been about 6, 500 groups of 41 blocks solved ever. So either Eclipse has had extremely good luck, or there's a problem with the data. Given the strange changes in hashrate per round, it may be the latter so I'll find some time to audit the script I use to pull Eclipse's data.

Edit: Pool op Inaba thinks there might be a simple reason for this. Hopefully next week's luck (and hashrates per block) will be more normal.

2. Most pools lose some of their network; GHash.IO challenges BTCGuild.
The network hashrate is back up to 126% of expected, and the only pools to show an increase in their proportion of the network are GHash.IO, Discus Fish and ASICMiner. Since the latter two are small pools/entities, it seems that GHash.IO has increased it proportion of the network at everyone else's expense. In other words, much of the extra 262 blocks solved can be attributable to GHash.IO. At this rate it won't be long before they overtake BTCGuild.

Now would be a good time to throw some hashes at some of the smaller pool. Spreading your hashes amongst several pools will reduce your overall income variance and also help keep the network less centralised.

3. 50BTC now at 2Thps.
Seems like miners are returning. Check the latest gossip in the 50BTC thread on the bitcointalk.org forum.


Organofcorti lives! (thanks to Eclipse )

As usual, please post comments if there's anything you don't understand, with which you disagree, or just think is wrong.

The charts

Table: Table of all pools with public data and their various statistics averaged for the last seven days - for smaller pools the average may be more or less than seven days, depending on number of blocks solved for the week. Network hashrate and that of some pools are estimates, the upper and lower 95% confidence interval bounds are included.
Figure 1: Pie chart of the percentage of network blocks hashrate by pool. "Unknown" combines those pools for which I can't scrape statistics, solominers and private pools. The percentage of network hashrate will only be approximate since the exact network hashrate is unknown.
Figure 2: Chart of network hashrate, hashrate of the largest mining pool, combined hashrates of the three largest mining pools, and a line representing 50% of the network hashrate. Handy if you're worried about 51% attacks. The upper and lower 95% confidence interval bounds for the network hashrate are in between the shaded areas.
Figure 3: Chart of chronology of pool hashrates, averaged per week.
Figure 4: Chart of average hashrates per pool per round for the week, per 144 rounds for the network, and per hour for BTCGuild. The upper and lower 95% confidence interval bounds for the network hashrate are in between the shaded areas.
Figure 5: Chart of chronology of negative binomial CDF probability of shares submitted and blocks produced for the week.
Figure 6: Chart of chronology of round length divided by difficulty, averaged per week.
Figure 7: Chart of hashrate vs round length for hoppable pools (the larger the hashrate increase at the start of a round, the larger the loss to strategic miners).
Figure 8: Chart of pool user hashrate distribution. Note that for some pools this average is over twenty four hours, some pools are averaged over an hour or more and some for only fifteen minutes, so expect some variance in the results.


Thanks to blockexplorer.com for use of their network statistics.

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