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Sunday, 22 September 2013

September 22nd 2013 weekly pool and network statistics



Welcome, miners.

Changelog:
  • Added "New coinbase messages", which are non-pool coinbase signatures from the block creator.
Usual pools missing from results:
  • Nil
Errors:
  • Nil
Pools with coinbase signature:


Recent coinbase messages:

  • 258692 "To my honey, by bitfish."



Pool hopping:
  • Nil.

1. Someone is leaving love messages in the coinbase!
Perhaps I'm jealous that no one is leaving me love messages in the coinbase, but I don't feel the coinbase is the right place to leave "To my honey, by bitfish." (block 258692 ), unless of course I'm bitfish's honey in which case I'm fine with it.


2. Network hashrate and forecasting
The average weekly network hashrate touches 1000 Thps (1000 000 Ghps or 1 Phps, however you prefer to look at it - I'll have to spend some time changing the units on some of the charts. The forecasting methods I've been using for daily hashrate and weekly hashrate have been almost as accurate as my forecasts before the network started to ignore the exchange rate, so I'll be posting them soon. The difficulty forecast looks good too, but Im waiting for another retarget to be sure.

3. MT GOX exchange rate forecasting.
I thought I'd give this a go for the hell of it, not really expecting much of a useful forecast. To my surprise, the forecast is about as accurate as the network hashrate forecast, so I'll be posting some BTC exchange rate forecasts soon. I'd like to base it on as many US$ exchanges as possible, so I have a few changes to make.

4. Hashrate changes
Ozcoin (8th), BitMinter (9th) and BTCGuild (1st) were the only large pools to see an increase in hashrate this week. If you're an Ozcoin miner I am planning to soon resolve the problem that has prevented me from using the site data, and pool op Graeme offered me his help some time ago. I'll get on to it soon, but I need to finish my work on daily and weekly average hashrate forecasts, network difficulty forecasts and BTC exchange rate forecasts first.

As usual, please post comments if there's anything you don't understand, with which you disagree, or just think is wrong.

The charts

Table: Table of all pools with public data and their various statistics averaged for the last seven days - for smaller pools the average may be more or less than seven days, depending on number of blocks solved for the week. Network hashrate and that of some pools are estimates, the upper and lower 95% confidence interval bounds are included.
Figure 1: Pie chart of the percentage of network blocks hashrate by pool. "Unknown" combines those pools for which I can't scrape statistics, solominers and private pools. The percentage of network hashrate will only be approximate since the exact network hashrate is unknown.
Figure 2: Chart of network hashrate, hashrate of the largest mining pool, combined hashrates of the three largest mining pools, and a line representing 50% of the network hashrate. Handy if you're worried about 51% attacks. The upper and lower 95% confidence interval bounds for the network hashrate are in between the shaded areas.
Figure 3: Chart of chronology of pool hashrates, averaged per week.
Figure 4: Chart of average hashrates per pool per round for the week, and per 144 rounds for the network. The upper and lower 95% confidence interval bounds for the network hashrate are in between the shaded areas.
Figure 5: Chart of chronology of negative binomial CDF probability of shares submitted and blocks produced for the week.
Figure 6: Chart of chronology of round length divided by difficulty, averaged per week.
Figure 7: Chart of hashrate vs round length for hoppable pools (the larger the hashrate increase at the start of a round, the larger the loss to strategic miners).
Figure 8: Chart of pool user hashrate distribution. Note that for some pools this average is over twenty four hours, some pools are averaged over an hour or more and some for only fifteen minutes, so expect some variance in the results.


























Thanks to blockexplorer.com for use of their network statistics.

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