Neighbourhood Pool Watch: Weekly network forecast 12th August 2013

12th August, 2013

Last post

Important:
These posts are a test of the methods used to create the forecasts, and definitely do not forecast non-MTGOX US$ / BTC price related changes - for example the current massive decrease in the cost of a hash. Please do not use the forecasts here for financial forecasts.

0. The end
Well, it seems that the relationship between the bitcoin price and the hashrate has changed to a new linear relationship, is no longer linear, or are currently unrelated. Whatever the reason, my method for forecasting the hashrate is clearly no longer valid - so I'm ending the experiment here.

I'm happy with the results of my first attempt at forecasting - it took far longer to fail than I thought it would. When I've put a bit more study into forecasting methods I'll start the weekly estimates again.

Until then: thanks for being such regular watchers of and commenters on my little experiment. If you have any advice for finding a better forecasting method please post your ideas in the comments!

1. Models and datasets:

The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.

Forecast and canary model analysis

All datasets

All estimates

Canary model: An estimate of the current hashrate estimate based only on current price and previous network hashrates. Used to detect changes to the network caused by agents other than the direct action of the MTGOX US$ / BTC price as determined by the model.

Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: These are the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the network hashrate, based on the modelled relationship between the MTGOX US$ / BTC and the network hashrate.

Difficulty modelling: Method one calculates a difficulty estimation using the network hashrate estimation and is recalculated each week. Method 2 calculates difficulty estimation based only on previous difficulties and the MTGOX price, and is only recalculated after each difficulty retarget.

2. Results

3. Charts

Chart 1:

A graphical history of the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 2:

A graphical history of the Canary model estimates of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 3:

A graphical history of the last twenty six weeks of retarget date and difficulty estimates, actual retarget dates and actual difficulties. It should be noted that each retarget will often be forecast by two consecutive weekly forecasts, hence the multiple points per retarget on the new chart.

Chart 4:

A graphical history of the one, two, and three retarget forecasts of the Difficulty, modelled directly as a function of previous Difficulties and MTGOX US$ / BTC prices.