Neighbourhood Pool Watch: Weekly network forecast 10th June 2013

10th June, 2013

Last post

Important:
These posts are a test of the methods used to create the forecasts, and definitely do not forecast non-MTGOX US$ / BTC price related changes - for example the current massive decrease in the cost of a hash. Please do not use the forecasts here for financial forecasts - these posts might be useful in that respect.

Errata: Nil.

0.Introduction

About an 18 Thps increase in the weekly average network hashrate until 3rd June, and now another 22 Thps increase in the weekly network hashrate until today. In two weeks the network hashrate has increased by 50% more than the total network hashrate in January. Those ASICs are getting out there, and the hashrate is finally able to react to the BTC price. Unfortunately for the model, the previous network hashrate also plays a part in the forecast so the models will be slow to respond to the change - unless it slows again.

While there are large variances in the increase of the hashrate (due to late shipping times and few people able to afford ASIC mining tools that might be shipped immediately), the network hashrate and difficulty will bounce around compared to the models. So while the accuracy of this week's models is very good, I don't expect that to continue for too long.

From last weeks post:

If the hashrate does continue to rise dramatically, the three and four week forecasts can be expected to be too low.

It's nice to know I get it right occasionally, even if the statement was fairly obvious.

1. Models and datasets:

The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.

Forecast and canary model analysis

All datasets

All estimates

Canary model: An estimate of the current hashrate estimate based only on current price and previous network hashrates. Used to detect changes to the network caused by agents other than the direct action the MTGOX US$ / BTC price as determined by the model.

Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: These are the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the network hashrate, based on the modelled relationship between the MTGOX US$ / BTC and the network hashrate.

Difficulty modelling: Method one calculates a difficulty estimation using the network hashrate estimation and is recalculated each week. Method 2 calculates difficulty estimation based only on previous difficulties and the MTGOX price, and is only recalculated after each difficulty retarget.

2. Results

3. Charts

Chart 1:

A graphical history of the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 2:

A graphical history of the Canary model estimates of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 3:

A graphical history of the last twenty six weeks of retarget date and difficulty estimates, actual retarget dates and actual difficulties. It should be noted that each retarget will often be forecast by two consecutive weekly forecasts, hence the multiple points per retarget on the new chart.

Chart 4:

A graphical history of the one, two, and three retarget forecasts of the Difficulty, modelled directly as a function of previous Difficulties and MTGOX US$ / BTC prices.