23rd May 2013
0. Introduction
I've recently had a number of requests to update the "ASIC choices" posts. As much as I'd like to, I just don't have the time to trawl the bitcointalk.org forum for information anymore. Getting "accurate" information for ASIC shipping dates and the amount of hashes to be shipped is difficult and time consuming, and since I'm now committed (my Avalon is due any day now *fingers crossed*) I don't find myself spending as much time and energy on the Custom Hardware board.
Some readers have not yet committed themselves to purchasing an ASIC (or new GPU), or already have and are planning expansions. From these folk I've had requests to do up to date future network estimates, so there is still a need for these sorts of assessment. Further, I think that many of these folk have a better idea of when and how much manufacturers will be shipping than I.
So I thought I'd try to make it a service so that anyone can see what effect their assumptions about shipping dates and quantities would have on the network.
1. How to request an estimate
You can request me to run as many or as few scenarios as you want. Anyone making earnest plans for mining in the future will have at least two or more scenarios in mind - an upper and a lower estimate for hashrate changes due to more miners joining, new hardware being added, and GPU miners leaving. Others just want a single glimpse into the future out of interest.
For each scenario you'll need to list at what date you think changes to the network hashrate will occur, for up to ten changes. For example, here's a single scenario request from someone who wants to see what the network hashrate and difficulty will be until the end of the year given these estimates for hashrate changes:
- ASICMiner: 23rd March to 31st December, 262 Thps added
- Avalon batch 2: 6th June to 30th June, 600 * 67 Ghps added
- Avalon batch 3: 1st July to 31st July, 500 * ( 67 + 85) / 2 Ghps added
- Avalon batch 4: 1st August to 31st August, 300*45 Ghps added
- Avalon chips: 1st August to 31st December, 20 Thps added
- BFL: 15th June to 31st December, 2 Thps added per day
- KnC: 15th September to 31st December, 1 Thps added per day
- GPU miners leave: 1 November to 31st December, 25 Thps subtracted
I run the request and send back the sorts of information I provided in the "ASIC choices" posts, with explanations of the resulting charts and tables.
Use the following as a template for your request:
Scenario number
Scenario completion date
Income assessment dates
Scenario 2
Scenario completion date: 31st December 2013
Income assessment dates: 1 February 2013 to 31st December 2013
Results:
A. Estimated network hashrate to date
The first chart is an estimate of the network hashrate to date. This is useful to place the results in context. The data for the plot is also in the Summary table, as well as the .csv data files.
B. Review your scenarios
C. Summary of results
D. An overview of the network changes
E. Expected daily and cumulative earnings per Ghps
F. BTC per Ghps cumulative earnings thresholds - how much should you spend?
organofcorti.blogspot.com is a reader supported blog:
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Scenario completion date
Income assessment dates
| Onset | Completion | Hashrate added per day | or | Hashrate added in total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change name 1 | Date 1a | Date 1b | Hashrate 1 | Hashrate 1 | |
| Change name 2 | Date 2a | Date 2b | Hashrate 2 | Hashrate 2 | |
| Change name 3 | Date 3a | Date 3b | Hashrate 3 | Hashrate 3 | |
| Change name 4 | Date 4a | Date 4b | Hashrate 4 | Hashrate 4 | |
| Change name 5 | Date 5a | Date 5b | Hashrate 5 | Hashrate 5 | |
| Change name 6 | Date 6a | Date 6b | Hashrate 6 | Hashrate 6 | |
| Change name 7 | Date 7a | Date 7b | Hashrate 7 | Hashrate 7 | |
| Change name 8 | Date 8a | Date 8b | Hashrate 8 | Hashrate 8 | |
| Change name 9 | Date 9a | Date 9b | Hashrate 9 | Hashrate 9 | |
| Change name 10 | Date 10a | Date 10b | Hashrate 10 | Hashrate 10 |
"Change name" should be something simple, for example "BFL", "Avalon batch 3", "ASICMiner", or similar. The hashrate changes can be in either column (for a total over the period or per day), and can be positive or negative (if the change is adding or subtracting hashrate from the network). Mark clearly whether the changes are in Thps or Ghps.
The cost per request is US $35 for a single scenario to be run, US $50 for two and US $25 for each additional scenario.
That's all there is to it. Email me your estimates at MineConsultant@organofcorti.org, and I'll email charts, data and an explanation of each. I'll email you back confirming that I can run your request and provide you with a billing btc address, or ask for additional information or explain why a scenario can't be run.
If I can run your scenarios I'll also include a btc price that will be valid for twenty four hours. Once you've sent the btc to the billing address, please email me with the tx id of your transaction and I'll email you the results within 24 to 48 hours.
If I can run your scenarios I'll also include a btc price that will be valid for twenty four hours. Once you've sent the btc to the billing address, please email me with the tx id of your transaction and I'll email you the results within 24 to 48 hours.
2. A worked example
Scenario 1
Scenario completion date: 31st December 2013
Income assessment dates: 1 February 2013 to 31st December 2013
Scenario 1
Scenario completion date: 31st December 2013
Income assessment dates: 1 February 2013 to 31st December 2013
| Dates | Daily change, Thps | Total Change, Thps | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASICMiner | 2013-05-23 to 2013-11-30 | 0.64 | 121.00 |
| Avalon batch 2 | 2013-06-01 to 2013-06-30 | 1.38 | 40.20 |
| Avalon batch 3 | 2013-07-01 to 2013-07-31 | 1.26 | 38.00 |
| Avalon batch 4 | 2013-08-01 to 2013-08-31 | 0.45 | 13.50 |
| Avalon chips | 2013-08-01 to 2013-10-31 | 0.22 | 20.00 |
| BFL | 2013-06-15 to 2013-12-31 | 1.00 | 199.00 |
Scenario 2
Scenario completion date: 31st December 2013
Income assessment dates: 1 February 2013 to 31st December 2013
| Dates | Daily change, Thps | Total Change, Thps | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASICMiner | 2013-05-23 to 2013-12-31 | 1.18 | 262.00 |
| Avalon batch 2 | 2013-06-01 to 2013-06-30 | 1.38 | 40.20 |
| Avalon batch 3 | 2013-07-01 to 2013-07-31 | 1.26 | 38.00 |
| Avalon batch 4 | 2013-08-01 to 2013-08-31 | 0.45 | 13.50 |
| Avalon chips | 2013-08-01 to 2013-12-31 | 0.13 | 20.00 |
| BFL | 2013-06-15 to 2013-12-31 | 2.00 | 398.00 |
| KnC | 2013-09-15 to 2013-12-31 | 1.00 | 107.00 |
Results:
A. Estimated network hashrate to date
The first chart is an estimate of the network hashrate to date. This is useful to place the results in context. The data for the plot is also in the Summary table, as well as the .csv data files.
B. Review your scenarios
Next, review the Scenario tables:
C. Summary of results
Compare the effects your scenarios would have on the network and earnings per Ghps.
D. An overview of the network changes
See how network variables (hashrate, blocks solved per day and network mining difficulty) change in response to your scenarios.
E. Expected daily and cumulative earnings per Ghps
The plots show how cumulative and daily earnings change over time.
F. BTC per Ghps cumulative earnings thresholds - how much should you spend?
These charts can help you decide if, under a given scenario, it would be worthwhile purchasing a mining device.
- The days required (tile colour) for a miner to earn more than a minimum earnings threshold in btc per Ghps (y axis), depending on the deployment date (x axis).
- The cumulative earnings in btc per Ghps over 60 days minus the minimum earnings threshold in btc per Ghps (net profit, tile colour and y axis, respectively), depending on the deployment date (x axis).
- Similar to 2. but expressing the cumulative earnings in 60 days minus the minimum earnings threshold as a percentage of the minimum earnings threshold - a percentage return.
I include actual data alongside the plots, saved as a .csv file for easy importing to Excel or other spreadsheet software (or R, if you use it). I've included links to the data for this example to give you an idea. The first and last of each group are the data behind the Summary table, and the middle is associated with the threshold income plots.
3. Summary
- Email a request for one or more scenarios to be run to MineConsultant@organofcorti.org using the format specified.
- On receipt of a confirmation email from me, send btc to the address in the email and email me back the tx id.
- I email you the results with some simple explanations, and answer questions should you have any.
I hope you get a kick out of this service. Any time you think "I wonder what effect that will have on the network", send me an email!
organofcorti.blogspot.com is a reader supported blog:
12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
Finally will donate to toward this...
ReplyDeleteCheers! I'll have to introduce services more often ;)
DeleteWow, someone's doing serious calculations! I think the increase will be around 15-20% for two week period until the end of 2013. I've made some calculations on three different avalon chip projects, avalon batch 3 and asicminer's hardware. Some of the projects are very likely to fail in generating (much) profit for the investors.
ReplyDeleteAlso made other calculations on electricity until the end of 2014. Electricity won't be the decisive factor for at least a year for those who will migrate the hardware to the cheapest places. Mining at home at typical 10-20 cent/kWh might become unprofitable rather soon, as soon as beginning of 2014, but it might get extended if asic hardware will adopt smaller technology quickly.
As for 2015-16 electricity will be one the three decisive factors. Only the cheapest places on Earth would bring profit. The other will be technological lead on optimization of hardware and of course the time schedule on deployment.
Getting the cheapest electricity on free market is not difficult. In long term the whole mining operation will take around 1GkW (200$/B), so the two remaining factors will be technology lead (Hs/$ and H/J) and constant race for deployment time.
Thanks for the thoughtful comment. You should write a post here sometime!
DeleteI do think many miners are mining without profit in mind, and either hoping for the best or just having some fun, and aren't too concerned about a return - which partly explains the high prices we've seen recently.
I also think hosted mining will become popular in low cost electricity areas well before 2015 - 16 though. It's not just the cost of electricity but also the power requirements. Any significant amount of hashrate will require more electricity than the average non-commercial space can provide. Your choice is then to rent your own commercial space and manage it, or get someone else to do it for you. I'd prefer to have someone host my devices.
Awesome blog ooc. I have a question about mining profitability calculators. The one at bitcoinx uses a default of 0.61 for profitability decline per year which seems pretty high. What do think would be a more realistic value?
ReplyDeleteHonestly, it's impossible to say. You could project the last few months forward for the next six months or use knowledge about future manufacturer hashes, but to project "decline per year"? I don't know how that could possibly work accurately. Sorry!
Delete