These posts are a test of the methods used to create the forecasts, and definitely do not forecast non-MTGOX US$ / BTC price related changes - for example the current massive decrease in the cost of a hash. Please do not use the forecasts here for financial forecasts - the "ASIC choices" posts are more useful in that respect.
0.Introduction
More Avalon ASICs have joined the network, and ASICMiner has added ~ 4Thps in total, with 8 Thps more to add. However with a very large increase in difficulty recently many GPU miners have probably left, accounting for the recent drop in hashrate which is probably why the forecast estimates continue to be accurate.
I posted on bitcointalk.org the reasons I think the USD / BTC price will fall or at best stabilise in the medium term. If this happens we would expect the continued increase in the network hashrate to reduce somewhat. Slowing the acceleration of hashes added to the network might allow the models to remain accurate for longer.
1. Models and datasets:
The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.
Canary model: An estimate of the current hashrate estimate based only on current price and previous network hashrates. Used to detect changes to the network caused by agents other than the direct action the MTGOX US$ / BTC price as determined by the model.
Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: These are the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the network hashrate, based on the modelled relationship between the MTGOX US$ / BTC and the network hashrate.
Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: These are the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the network hashrate, based on the modelled relationship between the MTGOX US$ / BTC and the network hashrate.
2. Results
- Canary model, Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: Network hashrate is within the confidence interval for all errors. The four week forecast was significantly accurate.
- Difficulty modelling: The method 1 model looks to be likely more accurate that the method 2 model in upcoming weeks. Generally though the estimates seem likely given the expected increases due to ASIC devices.
3. Charts
Chart 1:
A graphical history of the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.
Chart 2:
A graphical history of the Canary model estimates of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.
Chart 3:
A graphical history of the last twenty six weeks of retarget date and difficulty estimates, actual retarget dates and actual difficulties. It should be noted that each retarget will often be forecast by two consecutive weekly forecasts, hence the multiple points per retarget on the new chart.
Chart 4:
A graphical history of the one, two, and three retarget forecasts of the Difficulty, modelled directly as a function of previous Difficulties and MTGOX US$ / BTC prices.
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Thanks to the following for use of their data:
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