Important:
These posts are a test of the methods used to create the forecasts, and definitely do not forecast non-MTGOX US$ / BTC price related changes - for example the current massive decrease in the cost of a hash. Please do not use the forecasts here for financial forecasts - the "ASIC choices" posts are more useful in that respect.
Errata: Difficulty changed just after midnight, while my assessment period is only until midnight for the Network hashrate modelling and for Difficulty modelling method 1. This showed up a few minor bugs in method 1 reporting and a minor error in the way method 2 was calculated. These have been fixed, but the recalculation of method 2 is slightly different to what it was previously - so the previous estimates posted here are slightly different to the previous estimates posted in previous posts.
0.Introduction
New Avalons brought a massive surge in the hashrate this week, from ~ 38 Thps to 52 Thps. This is the type of influence on the network for which the models cannot account. The Canary model, designed to show significant changes that are not accounted for by the MTGOX US$ BTC exchange rate, models a network hashrate that is 12% lower than the actual hashrate, which is well outside the models 95% confidence interval. This means the Canary model is fulfilling it's design criterion quite well. So far it has reacted appropriately to the halving of the block reward, and now to a spike in hashrate added by less expensive hashes.
The other network hashrate models and the method 1 Difficulty forecast models all have quite acceptable errors, which can only be accounted for by the meteoric rise in the exchange rate and the flexibility of modelling week by week. The method 2 Difficulty forecast models are quite inaccurate, showing the difficulties associated with modelling a change which occurs during only one lag period.
I expect the network hashrate estimates for models f3 and f4 to be inaccurate next week if the current rise in hashrate continues, since they're based on the network hashrate and the exchange rate a month ago the lag will probably cause an underestimate of the hashrate. I expect models f1 and f2 to continue within their expected error range.
1. Models and datasets:
The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.
Canary model: An estimate of the current hashrate estimate based only on current price and previous network hashrates. Used to detect changes to the network caused by agents other than the direct action the MTGOX US$ / BTC price as determined by the model.
Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: These are the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the network hashrate, based on the modelled relationship between the MTGOX US$ / BTC and the network hashrate.
Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: These are the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the network hashrate, based on the modelled relationship between the MTGOX US$ / BTC and the network hashrate.
2. Results
- Canary model, Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: Network hashrate is within the confidence interval for all errors. All forecasts were significantly accurate, except for the Canary which indicates an unaccounted-for change in the hashrate.
- Difficulty modelling: The method 1 model continues to seem more accurate than the method 2, for reasons outlined in the introduction. It should also be noted that for method one - which forecasts from only 24 minutes before the difficulty change, the current difficulty is one retarget. Method 2 predicts further, recorded two tables below.
3. Charts
Chart 1:
A graphical history of the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.
Chart 2:
A graphical history of the Canary model estimates of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.
Chart 3:
A graphical history of the last twenty six weeks of retarget date and difficulty estimates, actual retarget dates and actual difficulties. It should be noted that each retarget will often be forecast by two consecutive weekly forecasts, hence the multiple points per retarget on the new chart.
Chart 4:
A graphical history of the one, two, and three retarget forecasts of the Difficulty, modelled directly as a function of previous Difficulties and MTGOX US$ / BTC prices.
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Thanks to the following for use of their data:
blockexplorer.com: 1Cvvr8AsCfbbVQ2xoWiFD1Gb2VRbGsEf28
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