Weekly network forecast 18th March 2013

Important: 
These posts are a test of the methods used to create the forecasts, and definitely do not forecast non-MTGOX US$ / BTC price related changes - for example the current massive decrease in the cost of a hash. Please do not use the forecasts here for financial forecasts - the "ASIC choices" posts are more useful in that respect.



0.Introduction
Another 3Thps were added to the network weekly average for this week, up to ~38Thps. More batch one Avalons have been arriving, but judging from the bitcointalk.org forums there are still a few to arrive. ASICMiner is sending 6Thps to BTCGuild, and increase of 2Thps, but I'm not sure if they're sending hashes elsewhere.

The hashrate and difficulty estimates are all a little high this week. The price is not driving Difficulty the way it has in the past. I think this is due to no new GPU miners being added (and some possibly leaving) but a bottleneck and a delay in the supply of ASIC devices means the hashrate is not able to respond to price as rapidly as previously.

1. Models and datasets:

The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.

Forecast and canary model analysis

All datasets

All estimates

Canary model: An estimate of the current hashrate estimate based only on current price and previous network hashrates. Used to detect changes to the network caused by agents other than the direct action the MTGOX US$ / BTC price as determined by the model.

Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: These are the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the network hashrate, based on the modelled relationship between the MTGOX US$ / BTC and the network hashrate.

2. Results

• Canary model, Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: Network hashrate is within the confidence interval for all errors. The four week forecast was significantly accurate.

• Difficulty modelling: The method 1 model looks to be likely more accurate that the method 2 model in upcoming weeks. Generally though the estimates seem likely given the expected increases due to ASIC devices.

3. Charts

Chart 1: 

A graphical history of the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 2: 

A graphical history of the Canary model estimates of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 3: 

A graphical history of the last twenty six weeks of retarget date and difficulty estimates, actual retarget dates and actual difficulties. It should be noted that each retarget will often be forecast by two consecutive weekly forecasts, hence the multiple points per retarget on the new chart.

Chart 4: 

A graphical history of the one, two, and three retarget forecasts of the Difficulty, modelled directly as a function of previous Difficulties and MTGOX US$ / BTC prices.

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