0.Introduction
Important: These posts are a test of the methods used to create the forecasts, and definitely do not forecast non-MTGOX US$ / BTC price related changes - for example a massive decrease in the cost of a hash ( something we expect any day now ). Please do not use the forecasts here for financial forecasts.
The network hashrate for this week is within the 95% confidence interval for error of all models, and is the most accurate for the three and four week forecasts for this week. The error for the f1 model is greater than for the Canary model (which is unexpected) so I'm not sure if the Canary model is as sensitive as it was prior to the block reward halving.
1. Models and datasets:
The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.
Canary model: An estimate of the current hashrate estimate based only on current price and previous network hashrates. Used to detect changes to the network caused by agents other than the direct action the MTGOX US$ / BTC price as determined by the model.
Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: These are the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the network hashrate, based on the modelled relationship between the MTGOX US$ / BTC and the network hashrate.
2. Results
- Canary model, Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: The network hashrate is greater than all models' 95% confidence interval lower bound. The one week forecast had 11% error for this week, the two weeks forecast had a 17% error. Interestingly the three and four week forecast estimate errors were very low at 7% and 5%. The canary model result had only a 2% error; although since the block reward halving I'm not completely sure how useful the canary model is.
- Difficulty modelling: Bah! I'll have try modelling Difficulty estimates when I have time.
Table 1:
One, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate, as well as the canary model estimate.
Table 2:
A comparison of the four forecasts and the canary model estimate with the actual network forecast.
Table 3:
One, two and three retarget forecasts for the mining Difficulty at those retargets.
Table 4:
A table of previous retarget date and difficulty estimates, and the actual retarget dates and difficulties as a comparison.
Chart 1:
A graphical history of the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.
Chart 2:
A graphical history of the Canary model estimates of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.
Chart 3:
A graphical history of the last twenty six weeks of retarget date and difficulty estimates, actual retarget dates and actual difficulties. It should be noted that each retarget will often be forecast by two consecutive weekly forecasts, hence the multiple points per retarget on the new chart.
Donations help give me the time to analyse bitcoin mining related issues and post the results. If you enjoy or find them helpful, please consider a small bitcoin donation:
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Thanks to the following for use of their data:
blockexplorer.com: 1Cvvr8AsCfbbVQ2xoWiFD1Gb2VRbGsEf28
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