Neighbourhood Pool Watch: 9.9 ASIC choices: Avalon update 2, by request

0. Introduction
There were many comments about the last post, and suggestions about new data.

Electricity can cost US$0.30 per kWh in Europe, and US$0.35 per kWh in California (discussed in private message).
The power consumption figures are lower for countries using 220 - 240 V mains.
I had not included the 12 000 Ghps coming online during this month from ASICMiner. I don't know when their batch 2 (at 72 000 Ghps ) is due, so I haven't included it.
I should chart expected daily earnings as well as cumulative earnings, to show how the earnings per day level out over time.

This update is specifically to address those concerns.

1. Assumptions

Only 67 Ghps Avalon models are being considered.
Arrivals are constant. Rather than modelling arrival times, I'm assuming a constant rate of hashes per second added to the network for each of the batches.
Batch 1: 100 units arrive before 1 week after CNY (domestic orders and a few foreign orders), the rest arrive from 24th Feb to 3rd March
Batch 2: 600 units arrive from March 12 to April 12 (I'm assuming shipping is streamlined and one takes a week for units to arrive).
Batch 3: 600 units arrive from April 12 to May 12
Exchange rate is US$20 / BTC
BFL delivers 1000 Ghps per day (~17 SC Singles per day) from 17th February to 12th May
ASICMiner delivers 1000 Ghps per day from 17th February to 1st March
Initial difficulty = 3 200 000
Initial network hashrate = 23 000,
I'm assuming no GPU miners leave since I still don't have time to work out how to include that feedback loop. That means this will underestimate earnings for batch 1. Batch 2 earning will be less affected.

2. Scenarios

Earnings assessments are based on units arriving on 3rd February (early batch 1), 24th February (late batch 1), March 12 (early batch 2) and April 12th (late batch 2).
Power costs:

US$0.25 per kWh for 595 W
US$0.30 per kWh for 595 W
US$0.35 per kWh for 620 W

3. Charts

The first group of charts show the expected hashrate, difficulty and blocks per day given my assumptions, and since I'm only considering BFL shipping 1000 Ghps per day there is only one line on each (as opposed to the charts in the last post. Note the slight bump in February due to ASICMiner's added hashes.

The next set of charts show expected cumulative earnings and expected daily earnings in the following order:

Early batch 1 deliveries
Late batch 1 deliveries
Early batch 2 deliveries
Late batch 2 deliveries

Each chart compares the three scenarios mentioned above.

4. Conclusions

ASICMiner only adds ~ 12 000 Ghps although over a relatively short period of time. It affects batch 1 deliveries more than batch 2 since in the long run it makes little difference - I expect BFL and Avalon to match or exceed that amount on average every day.

For the high electricity cost areas this post concerns, the differences in electricity cost and power consumption are minor.

The differences look more significant in the late batch 2 charts, but this is mostly due to the short period of time the chart covers. Further expected earnings per day is exactly the same for any miner at the same hashrate, electricity costs, and power consumption regardless of when they started to mine.

I'm still uncertain about late batch 2 being able to earn a complete return on investment. As soon as I have more data about Avalon batch 4 and BFL's plans, I'll post another update which will make the situation for batch 2 - and by extension batch 3 much plainer.

Avalon's store should reopen for the remainder of batch 2 some time in the next 24 hours. I have a day off work, so hopefully I'll have better luck this time. I hope some of what you read here has helped you decide whether or not to brave the Avalon store yourself. It just now occurs to me that I should have put a negative slant on this post to keep purchasers away and give me a chance. Hmmm. Tempting.

Thank you to whomever tipped me yesterday - it was a welcome sight when I looked at my client transactions this morning. It had been quite a while since any previous donation, and I was markedly less sad than when I went to bed. Cheers!