Welcome, miners.
Last week my estimate of BTCGuild's hashrate was a slight underestimate. BTCGuild pool op eleuthria kindly made a quick adjustment to the block history on the website, so this week's estimate is correct (within the listed 95% confidence interval). BTCGuild now has 25% of the network, a percentage not seen for any pool since DeepBit in July last year
As well as ASICMiner continuing to add hashes to BTCGuild, Avalon ASICs began to appear on various pools.
Ozcoin's hashrate has constantly increased during the week, and only Ozcoin and 50BTC have had any significant increase in the network. Other pools have had steady hashrates, but because the overall network has increased so much their percentage of the network has declined.
This was likely to happen - each new Avalon ASIC increases the variance in hashrate between pools until each pool has a steady increase in hashrate from ASICs. I estimate that by May 2013 the network hashrate will increase by an order of magnitude or more - so right now all pools are starting with approximately the same hashrate.
This would have been a good opportunity for very small pools to make sure they have variable difficulty and local work available, and to offer rebates to ASIC miners. So far only Ozcoin, Eligius, BTCGuild and 50BTC seem to have attracted significant numbers of the new ASICs, but that may change.
Ozcoin did overtake Deepbit this week, and Coinotron is still down - apparently an ongoing DDoS.
The pie chart shows a significant drop in the "unknown" hashrate (sources of network hashes other than pools included in the weekly summary). The hashes from the unknown sources do not seem to be using ASICs, so perhaps they have mostly been botnets mining their own bitcoind? Or a dark pool for botnets? (I'm making this up as I go, but some reader will have a better idea about this than I).
As usual, please post comments if there's anything you don't understand, with which you disagree, or just think is wrong.
The charts
Table: Table of all pools with public data and their various statistics averaged for the last seven days - for smaller pools the average may be more or less than seven days, depending on number of blocks solved for the week. Network hashrate and 50BTC.com hashrate are estimates, the upper and lower 95% confidence interval bounds are included.
Figure 1: Pie chart of the percentage of network blocks hashrate by pool. "Unknown" combines those pools for which I can't scrape statistics, solominers and private pools. The percentage of network hashrate will only be approximate since the exact network hashrate is unknown.
Figure 2: Chart of network hashrate, hashrate of the largest mining pool, combined hashrates of the three largest mining pools, and a line representing 50% of the network hashrate. Handy if you're worried about 51% attacks. The upper and lower 95% confidence interval bounds for the network hashrate are in between the shaded areas.
Figure 3: Chart of chronology of pool hashrates, averaged per week.
Figure 4: Chart of average hashrates per pool per round for the week, and per 144 rounds for the network. The upper and lower 95% confidence interval bounds for the network hashrate are in between the shaded areas.
Figure 5: Chart of chronology of negative binomial CDF probability of shares submitted and blocks produced for the week.
Figure 6: Chart of chronology of round length divided by difficulty, averaged per week.
Figure 7: Chart of hashrate vs round length for hoppable pools (the larger the hashrate increase at the start of a round, the larger the loss to strategic miners).
Figure 8: Chart of fulltime miner earnings loss at a proportional pool caused by pool hoppers, expressed as expected PPS earnings for fulltime miners. Currently only for Bitlc and Deepbit. Only valid if strategic pool hopping is actually occurring (see figure 7).
Thanks to blockexplorer.com and blockchain.info for use of their network statistics.
Donations help give me the time to analyse bitcoin mining related issues and post the results.
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