Weekly network forecast 31st December 2012

0.Introduction

I apologise for the delay in posting this update. The real world intervened in a most pleasant manner.

I've added some more error information this week to enable an easier comparison between forecast and actual network hashrate. The forecast models are recovering already, with all predictions within the estimated error range. It seems the reward halving has only had a temporary effect on the forecast model accuracy so far.

1. Models and datasets:

The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.

Forecast and canary model analysis

All datasets

All estimates

2. Results

• Canary model (current hashrate estimate based only on current price and previous network hashrates): This model's error has recovered to 4% of the actual weekly average network hashrate this week. The Canary model was outside the expected range for only 3 weeks after the reward halving, so it seems to remain a good indicator of the onset of changes other than the MTGOX BTCUSD price and previous network hashrate averages.
• Model.f1 (one week forecast): Model.f1's error recovered to 5% of the weekly average network hashrate, almost as low an average error as in the weeks leading up to the reward halving. Hopefully the model will remain useful until the ASIC hashrates are added.
• Models f2, f3 and f4 errors are high, and although within the estimated 95% confidence interval for the error are not yet useful for long range forecasts.

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Thanks to the following for use of their data:

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blockchain.info

molecular: 1MoLECHau3nb9zV78uKraNdcZsJ2REwxuL