Weekly network forecast 21st January 2013

0.Introduction

This week's model forecasts again predicted a much higher network hashrate than actually occurred. It seems that the reward halving may have had a more long term effect on the relationship between the lagged prices and hashrates than it seemed two weeks ago.

I'm more concerned about the effects ASICs will have, now that Avalon have confirmed they have started shipping. I'll keep the updates going for a while after the ASICs start hashing, but once it appears the models are completely broken I'll stop updating - and maybe find new models that include as variables reward halving and significant drops in the cost of hashes.

1. Models and datasets:

The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.

Forecast and canary model analysis

All datasets

All estimates

Difficulty data and estimates

2. Results

• Canary model (current hashrate estimate based only on current price and previous network hashrates): The network hashrate is still below this model's 95% confidence interval lower bound. 
• Model.f1 (one week forecast): The network hashrate is also below Model.f1's 95% confidence interval lower.
• Models f2, f3 and f4 errors are still high, but still within the estimated 95% confidence interval for the error are not yet useful for long range forecasts.

3. Tables and charts

Table 1:

One, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate, as well as the canary model estimate.

Table 2:

A comparison of the four forecasts and the canary model estimate with the actual network forecast.

Table 3:

One, two and three retarget forecasts for the mining Difficulty at those retargets.

Table 4:

A table of previous retarget date and difficulty estimates, and the actual retarget dates and difficulties as a comparison.

Chart 1: 

A graphical history of the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 2: 

A graphical history of the Canary model estimates of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 3: 

A graphical history of the last twenty six weeks of retarget date and difficulty estimates, actual retarget dates and actual difficulties. It should be noted that each retarget will often be forecast by two consecutive weekly forecasts, hence the multiple points per retarget on the new chart. 

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Thanks to the following for use of their data:

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