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Monday, 17 December 2012

Weekly network forecast 17th December 2012


0.Introduction
The reward halving continues to have a significant effect on the model predictions. The MTGOX US$BTC price is strong enough to produce higher hashrate predictions and the drop in hashrate has been precipitous enough to introduce a significant lag in the model prediction estimates. 


1. Models and datasets:
The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.


2. Results
The canary model, model f1 and model f2 (with the shortest lags) are all outside the 95% confidence interval now. I'll be interested to see how long it takes or if it's even possible for the predictions to settle back to within the expected error margins.





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