0.Introduction
This week's forecast is interesting, since it shows an influence other than price and hashrate having an effect on the current network hashrate. This influence is of course likely to be the block reward halving reducing the number of miners that find it profitable to mine, and hence reducing the network hashrate.
1. Models and datasets:
The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.
2. Results
The Canary model shows its value here. The drop in network hashrate is outside the 95% confidence interval for the percentage error; in fact it's outside the 99.9% confidence interval. I had hoped for this result which is an indicator that the Canary model may be useful for detecting when ASICs start to hash in significant numbers.
The Model.f1 prediction for this week is also outside the 95% confidence interval - this was not completely unexpected since the change is significant enough to be outside the expected error range.
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