Weekly network forecast 18th February 2013

0.Introduction
Important: These posts are a test of the methods used to create the forecasts, and definitely do not forecast non-MTGOX US$ / BTC price related changes - for example a massive decrease in the cost of a hash ( something we expect any day now ). Please do not use the forecasts here for financial forecasts.

The network hashrate for this week is again within the 95% confidence interval for error of all models. The error for the four week forecast was an unexpected 2%, which I think is simply coincidence since four weeks ago we had no ASICs hashing. 

The three and four week forecasts were quite low (5% and 7%) last week as well - a 2% error in a four week forecast would be very handy if you could rely on it. Maybe I need to tinker with the models a little.

1. Models and datasets:

The model datasets have been collected into one paste to save time. Model estimates have been likewise aggregated.

Forecast and canary model analysis

All datasets

All estimates

Difficulty data and estimates

Canary model: An estimate of the current hashrate estimate based only on current price and previous network hashrates. Used to detect changes to the network caused by agents other than the direct action the MTGOX US$ / BTC price as determined by the model.

Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: These are the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the network hashrate, based on the modelled relationship between the MTGOX US$ / BTC and the network hashrate.

2. Results

• Canary model, Models f1, f2, f3 and f4: The network hashrate is greater than all models' 95% confidence interval lower bound. 
• One week forecast had 10% error.
• Two weeks forecast had a 20% error. 
• Three week forecast had 10% error.  
• Four week forecast had 2% error.  
• Canary model result had only a 1% error; 
• Difficulty modelling: Still "Bah!"  I still don't have time to try modelling Difficulty estimates yet.

3. Tables and charts

Table 1:

One, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate, as well as the canary model estimate.

Table 2:

A comparison of the four forecasts and the canary model estimate with the actual network forecast.

Table 3:

One, two and three retarget forecasts for the mining Difficulty at those retargets.

Table 4:

A table of previous retarget date and difficulty estimates, and the actual retarget dates and difficulties as a comparison.

Chart 1: 

A graphical history of the one, two, three and four week forecasts of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 2: 

A graphical history of the Canary model estimates of the weekly average network hashrate compared to the actual network weekly average hashrate.

Chart 3: 

A graphical history of the last twenty six weeks of retarget date and difficulty estimates, actual retarget dates and actual difficulties. It should be noted that each retarget will often be forecast by two consecutive weekly forecasts, hence the multiple points per retarget on the new chart. 

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Thanks to the following for use of their data:

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bitcoincharts.com: 1kqHKEYYC8CQPxyV53nCju4Lk2ufpQqA2

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